The Age of Voter Rage by Nik Nanos

Author:Nik Nanos
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Eyewear
Published: 2018-07-15T00:00:00+00:00

What lessons can we take away from the UK’s 2017 general election?

The lessons from the UK election are many. First, a review of the research data suggests that the magnitude of the Conservative advantage going into the election may have been overstated and fed a media narrative of a seemingly inevitable and massive Conservative win, which was misplaced. Second, even with the Conservative advantage, the structure of the campaign – that is, the need to have balanced coverage between parties – meant that the trajectory of the Conservative trend line was likely to always be negative, with the one big unknown being how steep that negative trajectory might be as the political marketplace repriced the true strength of the Tories over the course of the campaign. Third, Labour benefited from a coalescing of Remain sentiment behind Jeremy Corbyn. Finally but most importantly, the one-two punch of disgruntled young voters and concerned seniors led to the near toppling of the May Tory government.

What is interesting about the UK election is that the rage was driven by different factors but rallied behind one primary choice: Labour. The young were angry about Brexit and seniors were concerned about the dementia tax. Together they shook up the Theresa May Conservatives and nearly catapulted radical outsider Jeremy Corbyn into 10 Downing Street. The near-upset occurred even though, counter to popular wisdom, Corbyn has steered his Labour Party manifesto decidedly to the left with a tone of radicalism and anti-establishment resistance. In this case, seniors who are usually more conservative joined the angry voters on the margin and tilted the balance.

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